Fermi Paradox

Fermi Paradox

The contradiction of Fermi paradoxes, or the fairy, in the name of physicist Enrico Fermi, is a clear contradiction between the lack of evidence and the high probability estimates for the existence of supernatural salvijeons. Physicists Enrico Fermi (1901-1954) and Michael H. The main points of the argument made by Hart (born 1932) are as follows:

There are billions of stars in the galaxy, which are similar to the Sun, and many of these stars are older than the billions of years old solar system.
With high probability, some of these stars have planets like Earth, and if the earth is unique, then some have developed intelligent life.
Some of these civilizations may have developed an interstate journey, one step, the earth is now investigating.
Even at the slow pace of the current interstellar journey, the Milky Way galaxy can be completely trapped within a few million years.
According to this line of reasoning, the earth had already been supposed by supernatural aliens. In an informal conversation, Fermi did not give any convincing evidence that he could ask, "Where is everyone?" Several attempts have been made to explain the Fermi paradox, primarily either suggesting that intelligent extraterrestrial life is extremely rare or there is a proposition for such reasons that such civilizations have not contacted or visited the earth.

The basis of Fermi Paradox

Fermi contradiction is the conflict between the argument that the scale and the possibility of taking the side of intelligent life to the normal in the universe, and the total lack of evidence of intelligent life arises anywhere on the planet other than this.

The first aspect of the Fermi paradox is the function of joining a large number of scale: 200-400 billion stars in the Milky Way (estimated 2-4 × 1011) and 70 sextillion (7 × 1022) in observable. Universe. Even if only one percent of the planetary planets have intelligent life around these stars, there may be a large number of extinct civilizations, and if the percentage was adequate, then it would produce a significant number of civilized civilizations in the Milky Way. It considers mediation theory, through which the earth is a specific planet.

The second aspect of the Fermi paradox is the argument of the possibility: Given the ability of intelligent life to overcome the scarcity, and its tendency to colonize new habitats, it seems possible that at least some civilizations will be technically advanced, Seek new resources in space, and colonize their own star system and later, to the surrounding star system. Since 13.8 billion years after the history of the universe, there is no significant evidence of the existence of other intelligent life on the earth, or in a known universe, therefore a resolution is required. Some examples of potential resolutions are that intelligent life is far more rare than what we think, that our perceptions about the normal development or behavior of intelligent species are flawed, or, more fundamentally, about the nature of the universe. Our current scientific understanding is quite incomplete.

Fermi paradox can be asked in two ways. The first is, "Why is not there any aliens or their artwork in the solar system or on the solar system?" If the interstellar journey is possible, even if "slow" kind of is almost within the reach of Earth technology, then it will take only 5 million to 50 million years in the colonization of the galaxy. It is relatively short on the geological scale, alone to any cosmological relation. Since there are many stars from the Sun, and since intelligent life has evolved somewhere else, this question becomes why the galaxy has not already been colonized. Regardless of whether the colonization is impractical or undesirable to all foreign civilizations, but the massive investigation of the galaxy may be possible after the investigation. These can leave detectable artifacts in the solar system, such as proof of old investigation or mining activity, but none of these have been observed.

The second form of the question is, "Why do not we see any sign of intelligence anywhere else in the universe?" This version does not take the journey to Interstellar, but it also includes other galaxies. For distant galaxies, well during the journey, can explain the lack of foreign visits to the Earth, but a sufficiently advanced civilization might be observable on an important part of the size of the observable universe. Even if such civilizations are rare, then the logic of the scale indicates that they should be present somewhere in the history of the universe, and since they can be traced back to a very long time, their origin There are many more potential sites within our range of observation. It is unknown whether the contradiction is strong for our galaxy or the universe as a whole.

History and name(Fermi Paradox)

In 1950, working in the Los Alamos National Laboratory, Fermi held a casual conversation while walking for lunch with his colleagues Emil Koppinski, Edward Taylor and Herbert York. Men discussed a recent speech by UFO reports and Alan Dunn cartoon, which clearly accused aliens of municipal waste for the massacre. The conversation was transferred to other topics, as long as the Firimi suddenly said, "Where are they?" (Alternatively, "Where is everyone?"). Taylor concludes, "The result of his question was a common laughter, in spite of the strange fact, even though Fermi's question came from the clear blue color, everyone around the table once understood that he was talking about the supernatural life. having had." Herbert York recalls that Fermi followed his comment with a series of calculations on the likelihood of planetary planets, possibility of life, high technology probability and duration, etc., and concluded that we should have visited. Long ago and many more ended.

Although Fergie's name is usually associated with contradiction, he was not the first person to ask questions. In an unpublished manuscript from 1933, there was a pre-contained mention by Constantin Tsciklovski. He said that "people deny the presence of intelligent beings on the planets of the universe" because (i) if such creatures have come to earth, and (ii)) if such civilizations were there, they give us some indication of their existence. "It was not a paradox for others who took it to mean the absence of ET, but it was for them because they themselves had a strong belief in the supernatural life and the possibility of space travel. What has now been known as the zoo's hypothesis and guessed that mankind would still be able to contact us for higher creatures Doors do not. That Tsiolkovsky will not be revealed, perhaps here that the paradox of the mention of the reasons for denying the existence of extraterrestrial civilizations to other people who are tracked by their appropriate context.

Michael H. Hart published a detailed examination of contradictions in 1975, which has since become a theoretical point of reference for research so far, which is now sometimes known as the Fermi-Heart paradox. Geoffrey A. Landis likes that name on the basis that "While Fermi is credited for asking for the first time, Hart first did a rigorous analysis that showed that the problem is not trivial, and to publish its results Is the first person to be " Robert H. Gray argues that the term Fermi paradox is a misnomer, because in its opinion it is neither a contradiction nor because of Fermi; Instead, he likes the Heart-Tipper argument, Michael accepts Hart as its promoter, but Frank J. is going to pursue Hart's arguments. Tipper also has significant contribution.

Other names related to Fermi's questions ("where are they?") Include Great Silence, and Cyllium Universal ("Latin for the silence of the universe"), although they only refer to a part of the Fermi paradox, that we Do not see the evidence of other civilizations.

Drake equation

Principles and theories in the Drake equation are closely related to the Fermi paradox. This equation was prepared in 1961 by Frank Drake in an attempt to find a systematic means to evaluate the many possibilities involved in the existence of foreign life. The speculative equation considers the rate of star formation in the galaxy; Stars of stars with planets and the number of live stars per live; Portions of planets that develop life; The evolution of an intelligent life; Detectable, technical intelligent life; And finally the length of time such detective civilizations are traceable. The basic problem is that the last four words are completely unknown, it is impossible to present statistical estimates.

The Drake equation has been used by both optimistic and pessimistic wildly with different results. The first scientific meeting on the discovery of ExtraTreatural Intelligence (SETI), which included ten including Frank Drake and Karl Sagan, estimated that the number of civilizations was almost equal in number of years (non-sequential) in years, and possibly between 1,000 and Milky They have 100,000,000 civilizations in the galaxy. On the contrary, Frank Tipper and John D. Barrow used pessimistic numbers and guessed that the average number of civilizations in less than one galaxy is less than one. Almost all the logics involving the Drake equation suffer from over-confidence effects, a common error of possible logic about incidents of low probability, by estimating specific numbers for the possibility of occurrences, whose mechanisms have not yet been understood It is as if the probability of abogenesis on Earth Like the planet, with hundreds of current estimates, many hundreds of magnitudes vary on orders. An analysis which takes into account some of the uncertainty associated with this lack of understanding, is done by Anders Sandberg, Eric Drexler and Toby Ord, and it shows that with great potential, in our galaxy either intelligent civilizations abundance Or Humanity is alone in an observable universe, with the lack of observation of intelligent civilizations pointing to the latter option.

Hypothetical explanations for the Fermi Paradox

Extraterrestrial life is rare or non-existent

Those who think that there is a wise supernatural life (almost) impossible to argue that the conditions necessary for the development of life - or at least the development of biological complexity - rare or even unique to the Earth. Under this assumption, the concept of rare earth, rejection of mediocrity theory, complex multicellular life is considered highly unusual.

Rare Earth's hypothesis argues that the development of biological complexity requires the host of fortune-related conditions, such as a galactic living area, a central star and planetary system in which there are essential characters, situational living areas, one Planet Planet of the right size, gravity Jupiter and a huge conservatory like a huge natural satellite, to ensure the planet The conditions necessary for such a Magnetosfiyr and plate tectonics, term 'lithosphere, atmosphere and the chemistry of the oceans, "evolutionary pumps" the role that the impact of massive glaciers and rare bolts. , And whatever caused the presence of eukaryote cell, sexual reproduction and cambrian explosion.

No other intelligent species has been created

It is possible that even though complex life is normal, intelligence (and consequently civilizations) is not. However, there are telecommunication techniques which can detect life-bearing planets without relying on technology signals, neither do they have the ability to tell whether any known life is intelligent or not. It is sometimes known as the "algae versus alumni" problem.

Intelligent alien species lack advanced technology

It may be that foreign species of intelligence are present, they are primitive or have not reached the level of technological progress required for communication. With such a non-intelligent life, it would be very difficult for us to find such civilizations, the lack of travel by an investigation, a journey that will take hundreds of thousands of years with current technology. To be skeptical, the fact that in the history of life on earth, only one species has developed a civilization at the point of being able to spaceflight and radio technology, gives more credibility to the idea that technically advanced civilizations Are rare in the universe.

It is the nature of intelligent life to destroy itself

It is argued that technical civilizations can usually destroy themselves before or after some time developing radio or spaceflight technology. Potential means of destruction are many, including war, casual environmental contamination or damage, lack of resources, climate change, or poorly constructed artificial intelligence. This general topic has been discovered in both imagery and scientific hypothesis. In 1966, Sagan and Schlokowski estimated that the technical civilizations would either destroy themselves within a century of developing interstellar communication capacities or master their self-destructive tendencies and would survive for the Arab-year period. Self-extinction can also be seen in the context of thermodynamics: Insomnia is an order system that can maintain itself against the tendency of the disorder as a life, "external transmission" or interstellar communication phase may be the point where But the system becomes unstable and it is self-destruct. [Further explanation required]

Destroying others is the nature of intelligent life

Another hypothesis is that beyond a certain point of technical ability, an intelligent species will destroy other intelligent species as they appear. The idea that some, or anyone can destroy intelligent life in the universe has been detected in scientific literature. A species can start such kind of destruction with expansionist objectives, paranoia or aggression. In 1981, Cosmologist Edward Harrison argued that such behavior would be the act of discretion: an intelligent species that has overcome its self-destructive tendency, could see any other species bent on the galactic expansion as a threat is. It has also been suggested that a successful alien species will be a superprint, as is the man. Another possibility invites the "tragedy of the Commons" and anthropological theory: To achieve the interstellar journey, the first lifeline must be essentially (even if inadvertently) prevent competitors from being born, and humans are just first.

Periodic extinction by natural events

New life can usually die due to the heat or coolness running on their runaway planets. On Earth, there have been several major extinct incidents, which destroy the most complex species alive at that time; The best example of dinosaurs being extinct is It is believed that these were caused by the effects of some large meteorites, large volcanic eruptions, or events such as gamma ray bursts of astronomical events. It may be the case that such incidents of extinction are common in the entire universe and from time to time destroy intelligent life, or at least its civilizations, before the species can communicate with other intelligent species Be able to develop the technology

Using extinct civilizations like Easter Island as a model, a study conducted in 2018 states that climate change driven by "energy-intensive" civilizations can prevent stability within such civilizations, thus creating intelligent extra-terrestrial Explains the contradictory lack of evidence for life.

Inflation hypothesis and youth logic

Cosmologist Allan Guth proposed a multiple solution for the Fermi paradox. This hypothesis uses simultaneous gauge probability distribution, which results in younger cosmos more than older people (by the factor of e1037 for every second of the age). Therefore, on average, on all universes, the universes with civilizations will almost always be one, first development. However, Gough notes "Perhaps the argument argues why SETI has not found any sign from foreign civilizations, but I find it more plausible that this is only a symptom that the synchronous gauge probability distribution is not correct."

Intelligent civilizations are too far apart in space or time

It may be that the non-colonial technically capable foreign civilizations exist, but they are far too far for two-way communication. If two civilizations are separated from several thousand light years, then it is possible that one or both cultures may be extinct before the meaningful dialogue is established. Human discovery may be able to detect its existence, but communication will be impossible due to distance. It has been suggested that if the contact / communication is done through the Bracewell check, then this problem can be cured to some extent. In this case at least one partner can get meaningful information in the exchange. Alternatively, a civilization can only transmit its knowledge, and it can leave the recipient what they should do about it. It is similar to the transmission of information from ancient civilizations to the present, and humanity has operated similar activities like Arecibo Message, which can transfer information about the intelligent species of the Earth, even if it never responds Or do not react at the time. To achieve this for humanity. It is also possible that the archaeological evidence of past civilizations can be addressed through deep space observation.

A related speculation by Sagan and Newman suggests that if other civilizations exist, and are transmitting and searching, their hints and investigations have not yet come. However, critics have noticed that this is unlikely, because for this it is necessary that the advancement of humanity has occurred at a particular point on time, while the Milky Way is in transition from empty to full. Under this simple assumptions and calculations generated from them, there is a small fraction of the life span of a galaxy, so we are in the midst of this transition that is considered less in paradox.

Lack of resources to spread physically in the entire galaxy

See also: Project Deadlies, Project Orion (Atomic Propulsion), and Project Longshot

Many speculations about the ability of a foreign culture to colonize other star systems are based on the idea that interstellar travel is technically feasible. While the current understanding of physics governs the possibility of light-to-light travel, it appears that there are no major theoretical obstacles to building "slow" interstellar ships, even if necessary engineering beyond our current capabilities is. This idea underscores the concept of von Neumann investigations and Bracewell investigation as a possible proof of supernatural intelligence.

However, it is possible that current scientific knowledge could not properly understand the viability and cost of such interstellar colonies. Theoretical obstacles can not be understood yet, and essential resources can be so great that it is unlikely that any civilization can try to take it. Even if interstellar travel and colonialism is possible, then it can be difficult, which is leading a colonization model based on the perforation theory. Colonization efforts can not be in the form of an invincible crowd, but can be in the form of an uneven tendency to "destroy" outwardly, and endeavor to slow down and end the enormous cost involved. And hopefully the colonies will essentially develop their culture and civilization. Myself. Colonization can occur in "groups" in this way, with large areas which remain unknowingly at any time.

It is cheaper to transfer information for exploration

If machine is built in human capacity, such as mind uploading is possible, and it is possible to transfer such constructions to vast distances and reconstruction on a remote machine, then it is possible to travel to the galaxy by a space shuttle Can not make a strong financial sense. After the first civilization, the physical form of the galaxy has been explored or colonized, as well as such machines have been dispatched for easy exploration, then the latter citizenship, after contacting for the first time, this intelligent construction transforms the galaxy's address It can be cheap, fast and easy to apply. For machines manufactured by the first civilization, which is cheaper than the Spaceflight by the factor of 108-1017. However, since only one star system requires only such a remote machine, and the probability of communication is highest, which is transmitted at high frequencies and is at minimum power to be economical, It would be difficult to find out.

Man's existence is not long ago

Humanity's ability to detect intelligent extraterrestrial life has existed since 1937 for a very brief period - if the invention of radio telescope is taken as a split line - and Homo sapiens is a geographically recent species. . The whole period of modern human existence is a very brief period on the scale of the universe, and radio broadcasts have been promoted since 1895 only. Thus, it is possible that humans have neither existed for long nor have they adequately detected themselves.

We are not listening properly

There are some assumptions that underline the SETI programs that can cause searchers to remember the present signals. For example, for example, they can transmit signals with extremely high or low data rates or can employ unorthodox (in our conditions) frequencies, which would make it difficult to separate them from background noise. Signals can be sent from non-main sequence star systems, which we search with less priority; Current programs assume that most of the aliens will revolve stars like Suns.

The biggest challenge is the large size of radio search in search of signals (effectively to expand the entire universe), limited amount of resources committed to SETI and sensitivity of modern equipment. For example, SETI estimates that radios are sensitive with telescopes such as Arecibo Observatory, Earth's Television and radio transmissions will be able to detect at only 0.3 light-years away, from the nearest star to the distance of 1/10 is less. An indication is very easy to detect if signal energy is limited to either a narrow range of frequencies, or is directed to a specific part of the sky. Such signs can be traced from hundreds to tens of thousands of light years. However, this means that the detectors should listen to frequencies in the appropriate amount, and should be in the area of space where the beam is being sent. Many SETI discoveries believe that supernatural civilizations will be broadcasted like a deliberate signal, Arecibo message, so that can be searched.

Thus, to explore foreign civilizations through their radio emissions, Earth Supervisors either require more sensitive equipment or should hope for the lucky circumstances: that broadband radio emissions of foreign radio technology compared to our own Are very strong; A program of SETI is listening to the correct frequencies from the right areas of space; Or that the aliens deliberately send broadcast broadcast in our normal direction.

Civilizations have transmitted detectable radio signals for a short time

It may be that foreign civilizations are only able to detect through their radio emission for some time, so that they are less likely to spot them. The general assumption is that civilizations move the radio through technological progress. However, even though radio is not used for communication, it can be used for other purposes such as power transmission from solar power satellites. Such uses may also be visible even after the emissions are replaced by less visible technology.

More fictionally, advanced foreign civilizations can develop beyond broadcast in the electromagnetic spectrum, and communicate through technologies not developed or used by mankind. Some scientists have envisaged that advanced civilizations can send neutrinos signals. If such signals are present, then they can be detected by the neutrino detectors which are now under construction for other targets.

They areolate themselves

It has been suggested that some advanced creatures can physically divide themselves, can create large-scale artificial virtual environments, move them into these environments through uploading the mind, and ignore the external physical universe Whilst present in a completely virtual world.

It may also be that intelligent foreign life develops an "increasing indifference" in their outer world. Possibly any adequate advanced society will develop highly attractive media and entertainment well before capacity for advanced space travel, and the rate of appeal of these social contradictions is fixed, because of their underlying complexity, complex, expensive The effort is to overtake any desire. Such as Space exploration and communication. Once a sufficiently advanced civilization is able to master its environment, and most of its material needs are met through technology, then various "social and entertainment technologies" including virtual reality, that civilization Are posted to be the primary driver and inspiration.

They are too alien

Another possibility is that human theorists have underestimated how different foreign life can be different on earth. Aliens can be psychologically reluctant to try to communicate with humans. Perhaps human mathematics is transcendental to Earth and not shared by other life, although others argue that it can only be applied to abstract mathematics because mathematics associated with physics should be the same (in the results, if not in the methods ).

Physiology may also be the cause of a communication constraint. Carl Sagan estimated that a foreign species may have orders of a thought process slow (or faster) magnitude compared to us. [Citation needed] A message transmitted by that species may well sound like the random background noise, and hence is undone.

Another idea is that technological civilizations technically experience a singularity and get a post-biological character. Hypothatical civilizations like this can be quite advanced to present impossible communication.

Everyone is listening but nobody is transmitting

Foreign civilizations may be technically capable of contacting the earth, but are listening rather than just communicating. If all, or even most, civilizations work in the same way, then the galaxy may be filled with eager civilizations for contact, but everyone is listening and no one is transmitting. This is the so-called SETI paradox.

The only civilization we know, our own, except for some small efforts, is clearly not transmitted. Even such efforts, and of course, any effort to expand them is controversial. It is also unclear that we will respond to a known signal- the official policy within the SETI community is that "[No] the answer to another evidence of a sign or supernatural intelligence should be sent until the proper international consultation is taken Gone. " However, given the potential impact of any answer, obtaining any consent on "Who speaks for the Earth" can be very difficult? And "what should we say?"

Earth is deliberately not contacted

The zoo concept envisages that intelligent extraterrestrial life exists and does not contact life on earth for its natural development and development. This hypothesis can be broken down under the uniformity of the defect: It is a single culture or civilization, which is to decide to act contrary to the inevitability within our limits of abrogation, and the likelihood of such violation increases. Number of civilizations

An analysis of the time of inter-arrival between the civilizations in the galaxy on the basis of common astronomical assumptions shows that there will be a commanding lead on the subsequent arrival in early civilization. Thus, it can be established which we call through the concept of zoos through force or through a cultural founder effect, without the continuous activity of a galactic / universal standard and resultant "contradiction" or the founder.

It is possible that sufficient advanced civilization can travel on the earth to travel between solar systems, or remain uncertified or unfamiliar.

Earth is purposely isolated (planetarium hypothesis)

An idea related to the zoo's idea is that beyond a certain distance, the alleged universe is a fake reality. The constellation hypothesis estimates that creatures may have created this simulation so that the universe may appear empty for other life.

Communication is dangerous

A foreign civilization can feel that it is very dangerous for us or to communicate to them. After all, when very different civilizations have been found on Earth, the results are often devastating on one side or the other, and this can be applied well for inter-contact. Even contact at a safe distance may result in infection by computer code or by own thoughts. Perhaps prudent civilizations actively hide not only from the earth, but also from everyone, fear of other civilizations.

Probably the Fermi paradox - or its equivalent equivalent - is the reason for any civilization to avoid contact with other civilizations, even if no other obstacles are present. From the perspective of any one civilization, it is unlikely that the first person to contact them first. Therefore, according to this argument, it is likely that the previous civilizations faced deadly problems with first contact and should avoid doing so. So perhaps every civilization is silent because of the possibility that others have a real reason to do so.

Liu Xixen's novel The Dark Forest is based on such a situation.

They are unassailable here

An important part of the population assumes that at least some UFOs (unknown flying objects) are operated by the aliens. While most of these are identifying or misinterpreting worldly events, there are some who remain surprised even after the investigation. The unanimous scientific approach is that although they can become unexplained, they do not grow up to the level of proofs.

Similarly, it is theoretically possible that SETI groups are not reporting positive restrictions, or the government is blocking signals or suppressing publication. This reaction can be attributed to security or economic interests by the possible use of advanced supernatural technology. It has been suggested that the detection of a supernatural radio signal or technology can be the most secretive information that exists. Claims that this is common in the popular press already, but the scientists involved in it report the opposite experience - the press is notified before a confirmation is confirmed, and is interested in finding potential.